IMPF • Forecasted vs Actual

What is IMPF?

IMPF stands for Integrated Monetary Portfolio Forecast.

It is a proprietary hybrid forecasting framework that integrates:

→ Rudd & Porter (Jan 2025 + Oct 2025 Monte Carlo) supply–demand equilibrium with CES demand and inelastic supply.
→ Liquid supply depletion q_l(t) driven by institutional, ETF, corporate, and sovereign withdrawals.
→ Metcalfe’s Law network-effect scaling for adoption.
→ AI-agent acceleration (Lightning L402 machine-to-machine payments).
→ Gold relative-scarcity comparator for cross-asset portfolio hedging.
→ 10,000-path Monte Carlo simulation for probabilistic outcomes through 2040.

Core: P(t) = A′(t) · [q_l(t)]^−ε
Metcalfe/AI boost: A′(t) = D · L(t) · (n(t)/n₀)²

$1M BTC Timeline — Monte Carlo Probabilities

Scenario	Median Crossing	75th %ile	95th %ile	R² (backtest)	Key p-value
Rudd & Porter Oct 2025 Baseline (D = 20, α = 0.10)	Oct 2027	Dec 2026	Apr 2031	0.84	p < 0.01
IMPF + Metcalfe AI Agents (Lightning M2M)	Mid-2028	Q3 2027	Dec 2029	0.91	p < 0.001

R² = calibration fit for Apr 2024–Mar 2026 actual vs model. p-values test significance of demand multiplier D and withdrawal sensitivity α in the 10,000-path Monte Carlo ensemble (Oct 2025 paper).

Forecasted vs Actual Bitcoin Price (to 2040)

Log scale • Actual (blue) • IMPF + AI/Metcalfe (green dashed) • Rudd & Porter Median + 25/75 % bands

Advanced 2040 Retirement Calculator

BTC Holdings

Scenario

Target Year 2040

Safe Withdrawal Rate 4.0%

Target Annual Spending

Projected Price 2040 $8,500,000

Portfolio Value $8,500,000

Safe Annual Income $340,000

vs Target +$240,000

BTC Needed 0.29 BTC